Navigating the coming state elections

Jul 14, 2023

In a few weeks, six states will go to the polls to choose their state governments; three currently controlled by PH - Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, and three by PAS - Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. The dynamics of the first and second set of states are similar, owing to the demographic, voting patterns and political norms of each other. While the first three are industrial economies with a more multiracial population, the latter are predominantly Muslim with an agricultural economic base.

Both Perpaduan and Perikatan desperately need this win. Perpaduan, to seal its legitimacy as a popular government, and Perikatan, to try and demonstrate that this government isn’t endorsed by most of the electorate.

The reality is, however, that barring an overwhelming but unlikely win to either side, the status quo is likely to remain.

If the voting pattern of the last General Elections remain, Selangor and Penang would likely see reduced margins or seats for PH, especially the northern part of Selangor and mainland Penang. Their partnership with BN however, is likely to further secure the Perpaduan position in Negeri Sembilan, and in currently held strongholds, in central and south of Selangor, as well as Penang island.

For Perikatan, it is likely to solidify its positions in Kedah and Kelantan, with Kedah potentially being PAS’ new fortress state, replacing Kelantan, which have traditionally relied on returning Kelantanese to maintain its grip on power.

It is also possible for PAS Kelantan to lose a few seats as anecdotal indications denote better reception to Anwar’s leadership, combined with stronger brand recognition for Amanah, and Pakatan’s partnership with BN, which through UMNO, has a narrower gap to fill — less than 10 per cent in a few seats, and in Gua Musang and Sungai Petani, the total votes exceeded that of PN, translating to seven DUN seats.
This could put a slight dent in a previously unassailable victory for PAS-PN.

Both sides will undoubtedly attempt to swing these results in their favour — both will interpret the results to prove their argument that they are the true voice of the electorate, when both will actually be maintaining their current base support while making some progress the other way.

In this sense, if pure political support is the only barometer, Perpaduan can be expected to lose a little ground to Perikatan, but perhaps more accurately read as a continuance of the last election’s protest vote as opposed to permanently gained ground in Penang and Selangor.

Can Malaysia afford to play politics?
Whichever way the politics plays out, our lives will nonetheless be impacted. With a crushing 1.5 trillion-ringgit foreign debt, unstable and lowering Ringgit, we can no longer afford to dish out subsidies as we did in the yesteryears, as they now must contend with other basic needs like infrastructure and civil service salaries. The politics of handouts and goodies is, however, likely to continue in some way or form, as the Perpaduan government will be pressured into doing so by their political opponents.

We will also likely not see the end of the politics of 3R (race, religion and royalty), as this is an emotive and therefore powerful method of soliciting support.

The real danger behind this is, as our economic problems aren’t a sexy topic to discuss politically, it will not be brought to the forefront, where it ought to be, and instead of helping our rakyat understand that some fiscal austerities and sacrifices are required to set us back on the right track, we will continue to discuss otherwise frivolous matters as both sides attempt to assuage fears, even if they are with little basis in reality.

Long Term Effects
Malaysia has been able to progress much in the past several decades, in no small part because of our economic stability. We have been able to alternate peacefully between intense campaign periods and four-and-half years of relative political peace, apart from the occasional scandal. Since 2008, however, and amplified considerably after 2018, we have been in a state of political high alert, with parties and supporters alike being in high-strung mode, constantly arguing, and worse, attempting to topple each other through any means necessary.

While this has largely been contained now by new legislations, a noticeable trend is the increasing tendency by political parties to undermine the legitimacy of their opponents who are in power, making it difficult to run the administration.

The constant politicking has also produced a jaded, disillusioned citizenry, and the social and economic destruction left in its wake, an impatient one.

It takes time and effort to turn policies around and make them work or devise new ones to circumnavigate old ones.

In response to this, political parties tend to devise too many “quick wins” to garner immediate support, mainly for its political survival.

This new need for immediacy, comes with two costs – thoroughness and opportunity – which come through three-to-ten-year plans that consider long-term studies and wider and more impactful, or even meaningful results.

Pandering to these stop-gap methods also creates the impression that this sort of sensitive political wagers pays off, leading to the continual use of extreme left or right type rhetoric, and the eventual abandonment of centrism, in favour of ‘results’, and a failure to deliver it, as certain political doom.

In the long run, this could mean abandoning the forest for the trees and the replacement of meaningful political debate, degenerating into jabs and narratives that do not serve the nation’s best interest beyond a narrow and shrinking.

(Emmanuel Joseph oversees IT as his 9-5 job and from 5-9, he serves a few NGOs, think tanks and volunteer groups. He serves as an advisor for Projek Dialog and is a Fellow with the Institute of Research and Development of Policy.)