The dark days are coming

When the Islamic State issued its latest aspirational map in August, there was an inherent warning for East Asia.

Nov 26, 2015

When the Islamic State issued its latest aspirational map in August, there was an inherent warning for East Asia. The militant group had not only captured large areas of Syria and Iraq and gained footholds across the Middle East and North Africa in just 18 months. By 2020, its jihadi fighters also planned to swallow the Indian subcontinent, wide stretches of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia, and march into western China.

In the days following the bloody chaos in Paris, the Islamic State has shown that its violent designs on this region — home to nearly two-thirds of the world’s Muslims — remain all too real.

Philippine security forces declared no-fly zones and blocked ships from entering port in Manila as world leaders, including Barack Obama, began talks at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit Nov 18. In the hours after the Paris attacks, masked gunmen appeared in a new online video in front of the Islamic State flag, warning of an imminent attack.

“The dark days are coming to you … We will terrorize you even in your sleep. We will kill you and defeat you,” it said.

In Kuala Lumpur, a Malaysian counterterrorism official announced on Nov 16 that the threat of the Is lamic State was “real,” as authorities spoke of a plot to kidnap senior Malaysian officials.

The following day, Islamic Stateaffiliated Abu Sayyaf beheaded a Malaysian hostage in the Philippines, in the latest sign that different militant groups in some parts of Southeast Asia are beginning to unite and align with the Islamic State. A recent video showed Abu Sayyaf fighters from the Philippines, until recently a dwindling group, posing with Malaysian militants behind an Islamic State flag.

In the southern Philippines, where a patchwork of Islamic militants has been fighting the government for decades, at least six groups are considered to be aligned with the Islamic State, said Rommel Banlaoi, director of the Centre for Intelligence and National Security Studies in Manila.

Malaysia has arrested more than 100 people with suspected connections to the Islamic State, Minister of Home Affairs Ahmad Zahid Hamidi told the UN Security Council in May, when it was estimated that 25,000 foreign fighters worldwide had joined the group.

In countries like Indonesia, there are fears that the few hundreds of people who have flown to Iraq and Syria will come back radicalized. The Islamic State’s key driver so far, however, has been existing militant groups that had  been on the wane, said Sidney Jones, director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict in Jakarta.

“They have been given a new sense of purpose by the establishment of the ‘caliphate’ in June 2014,” she said.

Those seeking to join jihad in Iraq and Syria must be approved by cells within Indonesia and then passed over to contacts on the Turkish border. Interest generated by watching propaganda on the Internet is typically the first step, said Jones.

Slamet Effendy Yusuf, deputy chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization, said it was time security forces took the threat seriously — Jakarta has still not passed a law against joining the Islamic State.

“The [Islamic State] network is already in Indonesia. It is small but very active,” he said.

There may be as many as 20,000 supporters in the country, including those who have returned from fighting in Afghanistan, said Ansyaad Mbai, former director of the Indonesian counterterrorism agency.

“This is very alarming,” he said.

In most of mainland Southeast Asia, there are fewer signs to suggest militants may be making headway — Thailand declared itself “ISIS free” following the Paris attacks. -- ucanews.com

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