What does a Trump victory mean for the future of American politics?

On the surface, it looks like a Republican electoral sweep which will allow them to enact their priorities.

Jan 19, 2017

By Fr Thomas Reese SJ
On the surface, it looks like a Republican electoral sweep which will allow them to enact their priorities. But Trump, the campaigner, was not a typical Republican. He ran against the Republican establishment and took positions on trade, Wall Street, infrastructure spending, and Social Security that are opposed by Republican leaders. He did not make gay marriage and abortion central to his campaign. Many Republican leaders opposed him even after he was nominated, although now that he has won, most have come around.

As president, will Trump heal his rift with the Republican establishment and work with the Republican Congress to pass traditional Republican legislation? Probably. They will undoubtedly agree to cut taxes, but how this will sync with their fear of deficits remains to be seen. Their common desire to repeal Obamacare will come up against the popularity of some of its features, such as requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing illnesses.

How they can keep this popular policy while getting rid of the unpopular requirement that everyone buys insurance remains to be seen.

In any case, now that the Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, it will be difficult for them to blame the Democrats for the country’s problems.

The Democrats will hold them responsible for anything that goes wrong. Trump has the additional problem of avoiding the appearance of a conflict of interest with all of his domestic and foreign investments.

Trump faces the common problem of all candidates of figuring out how to fulfill all of his unrealistic campaign promises.

Trump is less ideological than your typical Republican libertarian or religious conservative. He may be capable of switching positions or compromising on issues where they could not. He has already begun backing away from some of his more controversial promises, like putting Hillary Clinton in jail and deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants.

But if he does not fulfill his promises, then he becomes just another politician who promised the sky and delivered little. If he loses credibility with his supporters, he could be out of office in four years. On the other hand, everyone has underestimated Trump, so don’t count him out.

There is also the question of whether his supporters actually expect him to do everything he said. One political observer noted that his supporters took him seriously but not literally, while his opponents took him literally but not seriously.

If we take him literally, undocumented immigrants are going to be deported, environmental regulations are going to be gutted, global warming is going to be ignored, Muslims will be required to prove they are not terrorists or terrorist sympathizers, NATO countries are going to have to pick up more of the cost of their defence, and trade agreements are going to be challenged to make them more favourable to the US.

The US business community is terrified that Trump will get the country into a trade war that could bring down the global economy. The American scientific community fears he will ignore any facts that conflict with his opinions. The American security establishment fears that he will alienate allies and that Putin will run circles around him. They also fear his anti-Muslim rhetoric will feed into the ISIS narrative that there is a war on Islam.

On the other hand, Trump prides himself as a negotiator and dealmaker. Could he and (Vladimir) Putin negotiate a further reduction in nuclear weapons? Remember, it was under Ronald Reagan that the U.S. and Russia concluded two important arms reduction treaties, the INF Treaty (1987) and START 1 (1991). Could they resolve the Syrian crisis? Could they bring about an ease of tension in Europe?

But unless the economy improves significantly, the Republicans’ chances of holding on to the White House long term will be low. Demographers point out that the country is becoming more diverse and less white, not only because of immigration but because minorities are having more children than whites. In addition, young people are more inclusive than their parents. Red states like Texas and Georgia, which now vote Republican, will become purple and eventually blue (Democratic). Can the Republicans make up for this loss by holding on to the Trump shrinking constituency of less-educated whites? Can Republicans take more Hispanics away from the Democrats? -- NCR

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